Håvard Strand

Senior Researcher

Håvard Strand
Email: hs@prio.org
Work phone: +47 22 54 77 95
Mobile phone: +47 99 62 83 71

Research Interests

My current research focuses on further development of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, the relationship between political institutions and armed conflicts, and the relationship between data structures and statistical estimators.


​​Working experience:

1996-2000: Computer Dept., Faculty of Social Sciences, NTNU
2000-2001: Research Assistant, PRIO
2002-2006: Researcher, PRIO (20% position)
2002-2006: Research Fellow, Dept. of Political Science, UiO
2006-:        Senior Researcher, PRIO


PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.


The following publications are specific to the Centre for the Study of Civil War. A more complete list may be available at www.prio.org.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Strand, Håvard; Henrik Urdal; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Joakim Karlsen (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Hegre, Håvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Strand & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Strand, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Strand, Håvard (2011) Deconstructing Civil War: A Rejoinder, Security Dialogue 42(3): 297–302.
Urdal, Henrik; S. Mansoob Murshed; Håvard Strand; Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin & Gudrun Østby (2011) Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003, Journal of Development Studies 47(3): 377–398.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates & Mark P. Jones (2006) Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
Sørli, Mirjam E.; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Strand (2005) Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East?, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1): 141–165.

PhD Thesis

Strand, Håvard (2007) Political Regimes and Civil War Revisited. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

Book Chapter

Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2009) Democracy and Civil War, in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2008) Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability, in Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict. Abingdon: (147–162).
Strand, Håvard (2005) Terrorens demokratiparadoks, in Islamistisk Terrorisme. Oslo: (217–238).

Non-refereed Journal Article

Urdal, Henrik; Håvard Strand; Halvard Buhaug; Scott Gates & Håvard Hegre (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Mirjam E. Sørli & Håvard Strand (2005) Hva er det med Midtøsten? [What is it about the Middle East], Babylon 3(2): 10–15.

Popular Article

Strand, Håvard (2007) Freden lar vente på seg [Peace Remains in Limbo], Aftenposten, 1 October.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2003) Verden fredeligere–men ikke Afrika [The World More Peaceful–But Not Africa], Dagbladet, 10 September.

Conference Paper

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret PoliceFort Worth, TX, 21–23 Oct.
Gates, Scott; Lars Seland Gomsrud & Håvard Strand (2009) Surviving the Capitalist Peace: Leaders' Incentives and Economic FreedomPotsdam, Germany, 10 September.
Hegre, Håvard; Henrik Urdal & Håvard Strand (2008) The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Urdal, Henrik & Håvard Strand (2008) Youth Bulges, Democratic Elections, and Political InstabilitySan Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Strand, Håvard; Mark P. Jones; Håvard Hegre & Scott Gates (2007) Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800 –2000, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 March.
Hegre, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Strand (2007) Democracy and Civil War, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
Urdal, Henrik & Håvard Strand (2005) Differential Growth, Political Instability and Violent Conflict, presented at the 46th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, 1–5 March.
Gates, Scott & Håvard Strand (2004) Modeling the Duration of Civil Wars: Measurement and Estimation Issues, presented at Meeting of the Standing Group on International Relations, the Hauge, 9–11 September.
Jones, Mark; Scott Gates & Håvard Strand (2004) The Escalation Process from Political Instability to War, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2004) Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.

PRIO Policy Brief

Strøm, Kaare; Scott Gates & Håvard Strand (2010) Peace and Democracy – Can We Have Both?, CSCW Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2008) Lessons Learned from Power-sharing in Africa, CSCW Policy Brief, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Strand, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug & Håvard Hegre (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Gates, Scott; Halvard Buhaug; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Report - External Series

Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Marianne Dahl; & Håvard Strand (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, Working paper. .
Strand, Håvard; & Marianne Dahl (2011) Defining Conflict-Affected Countries, Background Paper prepared for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011. Paris: UNESCO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates; & Håvard Hegre (2010) Consequences of Civil War, Background paper for World Development Report 2011. .