Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Research Professor

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård left PRIO in 2021. The information on this page is kept for historical reasons.

Research Interests

My present research is centred on two themes:

Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.

Political Economy of Authoritarianism:  Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus. 



​​​​​​​​​​Working experience:

  • Research Director, Conditions of Violence and Peace, PRIO 2017 – 2021
  • Associate Editor, International Area Studies Review
  • Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2014 – 2021 
  • Norwegian Ministry of Defence Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, PRIO, 2014 – 2016
  • Associate Researcher, PRIO, 2010 – 2014
  • Research Assistant, CSCW, PRIO 2008 – 2010
  • Research Assistant for Dr. Tom Segev 2007 – 2008
  • Research Intern, African Council for Sustainable Health Development, Ibadan Nigeria, 2003

  •  PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo (January 2014)
  • M. Phil, Political Science, University of Oslo (June 2009)
  • BA, Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, (June 2004)

Consulting experience :
  • World Bank, on the development consequences of conflict (2010—2011)
  • Human Security Report Project, on education and conflict (2011)
  • NATO-Allied Command Transformation, on strategic foresight (2014—2015)
  • EU Commission, Joint Research Center, on developing a global conflict risk model (2014—)
  • United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, on forecasting conflict and political instability (2014--)





PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.


The following publications are specific to the Centre for the Study of Civil War. A more complete list may be available at www.prio.org.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Strand, Håvard; Henrik Urdal; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Joakim Karlsen (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Hegre, Håvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Strand & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589: 325–332.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2009) Trekantdramaet mellom Israel, Iran og Hezbollah [The Israel - Iran - Hezbollah Threesome], Babylon 7(2): 66–87.

Conference Paper

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret PoliceFort Worth, TX, 21–23 Oct.
Hultman, Lisa; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Hegre (2010) Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping OperationsWashington, DC, 1–5 September.

Report - External Series

Perez, Maria Ortiz; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Vito Intini; Youssef Chaitani; & Håvard Hegre (2011) The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region: An Overview, UN Doc E/ESCWA/ECRI/2011/1, 25 August. Beirut: UN ESCWA.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2011) The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region, Background paper for UN study The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region. Beirut.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates; & Håvard Hegre (2010) Consequences of Civil War, Background paper for World Development Report 2011. .