Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels

Conference Paper

Hegre, Håvard & Joakim Karlsen (2007) Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels, presented at the 48th International Studies Association conference, Trondheim, 3–5 January.

This paper presents a multivariate multinomial logit model of changes to countries’ level of democracy, taking into account growth, development, diffusion through neighborhoods, and the instability of new and inconsistent institutions. To allow interpreting the aggregate effect of these factors, the paper develops a simulation model where the political systems of a set of simulated countries evolve in accordance with the results of the multinomial logit model.The results show a strong tendency for political systems to move toward either full democracy or full autocracy, but…nd the dissusion effect to be relatively less strong. The simulations tend to produce less dramatic changes in the global average democracy score found in the real world.